Monday, November 5, 2012

Early 2013 fantasy baseball top 300


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Monday, November 05, 2012

Early 2013 fantasy baseball top 300

Posted by Jesse Sakstrup at 5:02am

We are only a week removed from the culmination of the 2012 postseason, and while the offseason is still in it's most nascent stages, it is never too early to look towards the upcoming season. Below is my preliminary?and incredibly early?look at the top 300 fantasy baseball players for the 2013 season. Players are ranked by their expected value in standard 5x5 Rotisserie leagues. The list is slanted slightly towards 12-team leagues, but the ordering would stray very little in any other format.

Ranking Methodology


I have created my own regression-based projections for well over 300 players, looking at a profusion of peripheral data to arrive at projections that I feel are reasonable, break-even points for each player. Back in August, I outlined my personal method for valuing players, called 'roto points above average' (rPAA), a method that is both quantitative and objective (outlined here and here). I use the same methodology in these rankings, with the sole exception that I am using my own projections instead of projections generated by ZiPS, which were used in the August rankings.

Once all players have been projected, positional adjustments are then made to account for dearth and abundance. Once this is completed, the values are set and a rough outline is created. My rankings do not reflect the precise ordering of players by projected roto point total, as my own subjectivity does move players up or down when the difference between them is merely fractions of a point.

Understanding my personal biases


I tended to rank catchers, starting pitchers and relief pitchers slightly lower than where their projected roto point total suggested they should go. This is because these positions usually have less certainty with regards to health, and because the surface numbers of pitchers (ERA, WHIP, wins and saves) are more vulnerable to wild fluctuations due to random variation or team context rather than skill elevation or degradation. And with closers, roles are in constant flux, making values extremely mercurial, rendering closers more replaceable with shrewd waiver-wire manipulation.

Remember that while these rankings are reasoned and were contrived deliberately, I cannot claim to have dissected every player profile with a surgeon's precision. In the coming months, I will delve deeper into plate discipline statistics, pitch-f/x data, and more individualized qualitative analysis. And, as always, roster moves, playing time expectations, closer roles, and injury status will become more salient in the coming months, inevitably affecting subsequent rankings.

I will update this list periodically throughout the offseason, but for now this is what my initial top 300 for 2013 looks like. Comments, critique, suggestions and questions are welcome.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/early-2013-fantasy-baseball-top-300/
macaroni and cheese  festivus  festivus  zeno  melanie amaro  new air jordans  jeff dunham 




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Num Player Name Team Position 
1 Miguel Cabrera Det 3B 
2 Ryan Braun Mil OF 
3 Mike Trout LAA OF 
4 Matt Kemp LAD OF 
5 Robinson Cano NYY 2B 
6 Joey Votto Cin 1B 
7 Albert Pujols LAA 1B 
8 Carlos Gonzalez Col OF 
9 Andrew McCutchen Pit OF 
10 Justin Verlander Det SP 
11 Jose Bautista Tor OF 
12 Prince Fielder Det 1B 
13 Josh Hamilton Tex OF 
14 Adrian Beltre Tex 3B 
15 Giancarlo Stanton Mia OF 
16 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 
17 Evan Longoria TB 3B 
18 Hanley Ramirez LAD SS/3B 
19 Ian Kinsler Tex 2B 
20 Stephen Strasburg Was SP 
21 Buster Posey SF C/1B 
22 David Wright NYM 3B 
23 Jose Reyes Mia SS 
24 Dustin Pedroia Bos 2B 
25 Troy Tulowitzki Col SS 
26 Jason Heyward Atl OF 
27 Justin Upton Ari OF 
28 Starlin Castro ChC SS 
29 David Price TB SP 
30 Matt Cain SF SP 
31 Adrian Gonzalez LAD 1B 
32 Felix Hernandez Sea SP 
33 Edwin Encarnacion Tor 1B 
34 Matt Holliday StL OF 
35 Curtis Granderson NYY OF 
36 Adam Jones Bal OF 
37 Bryce Harper Was OF 
38 Cliff Lee Phi SP 
39 Brandon Phillips Cin 2B 
40 Cole Hamels Phi SP 
41 Jered Weaver LAA SP 
42 Joe Mauer Min C/1B 
43 Jacoby Ellsbury Bos OF 
44 Jay Bruce Cin OF 
45 B.J. Upton TB OF 
46 Billy Butler KC 1B 
47 CC Sabathia NYY SP 
48 Ben Zobrist TB 2B/SS/OF 
49 Alex Rios CWS OF 
50 R.A. Dickey NYM SP 
51 Aramis Ramirez Mil 3B 
52 Mark Teixeira NYY 1B 
53 Roy Halladay Phi SP 
54 Aaron Hill Ari 2B 
55 Jason Kipnis Cle 2B 
56 Ryan Zimmerman Was 3B 
57 Craig Kimbrel Atl RP 
58 Corey Hart Mil 1B/OF 
59 Shin-Soo Choo Cle OF 
60 Ian Desmond Was SS 
61 Brett Lawrie Tor 3B 
62 Yoenis Cespedes Oak OF 
63 Jimmy Rollins Phi SS 
64 Zack Greinke LAA SP 
65 Chase Headley SD 3B 
66 Madison Bumgarner SF SP 
67 Pablo Sandoval SF 3B 
68 James Shields TB SP 
69 David Ortiz Bos DH 
70 Chris Sale CWS SP 
71 Paul Konerko CWS 1B 
72 Aroldis Chapman Cin RP 
73 Michael Bourn Atl OF 
74 Gio Gonzalez Was SP 
75 Allen Craig StL 1B/OF 
76 Adam Wainwright StL SP 
77 Melky Cabrera SF OF 
78 Yadier Molina StL C 
79 Jose Altuve Hou 2B 
80 Hunter Pence SF OF 
81 Yu Darvish Tex SP 
82 Carlos Santana Cle C/1B 
83 Shane Victorino LAD OF 
84 Alex Gordon KC OF 
85 Kris Medlen Atl SP 
86 Derek Jeter NYY SS 
87 Michael Morse Was OF 
88 Mat Latos Cin SP 
89 Carlos Beltran StL OF 
90 Asdrubal Cabrera Cle SS 
91 Paul Goldschmidt Ari 1B 
92 Elvis Andrus Tex SS 
93 Max Scherzer Det SP 
94 Jonathan Papelbon Phi RP 
95 Kenley Jansen LAD RP 
96 Matt Wieters Bal C 
97 Desmond Jennings TB OF 
98 Freddie Freeman Atl 1B 
99 Yovani Gallardo Mil SP 
100 Eric Hosmer KC 1B 
101 Dan Haren LAA SP 
102 Wilin Rosario Col C/1B 
103 Johnny Cueto Cin SP 
104 Neil Walker Pit 2B 
105 Jason Motte StL RP 
106 Mark Trumbo LAA 1B/OF 
107 Carl Crawford Bos OF 
108 Jordan Zimmermann Was SP 
109 Nelson Cruz Tex OF 
110 Mike Napoli Tex C/1B 
111 Ian Kennedy Ari SP 
112 Josh Willingham Min OF 
113 Ernesto Frieri LAA RP 
114 Matt Garza ChC SP 
115 Austin Jackson Det OF 
116 Tim Lincecum SF SP 
117 Matt Moore TB SP 
118 Salvador Perez KC C 
119 Sergio Romo SF RP 
120 Dan Uggla Atl 2B 
121 Victor Martinez Det C 
122 Alexei Ramirez CWS SS 
123 Andre Ethier LAD OF 
124 Hiroki Kuroda NYY SP 
125 Ichiro Suzuki NYY OF 
126 Joe Nathan Tex RP 
127 Doug Fister Det SP 
128 Ike Davis NYM 1B 
129 Glen Perkins Min RP 
130 Miguel Montero Ari C 
131 Jake Peavy CWS SP 
132 Martin Prado Atl 3B/OF 
133 Jayson Werth Was OF 
134 Tom Wilhelmsen Sea RP 
135 Lance Lynn StL SP 
136 Alejandro De Aza CWS OF 
137 Josh Johnson Mia SP 
138 Matt Harvey NYM SP 
139 Adam LaRoche Was 1B 
140 Marco Estrada Mil SP 
141 Brett Anderson Oak SP 
142 Fernando Rodney TB RP 
143 Alcides Escobar KC SS 
144 Brian McCann Atl C 
145 Chase Utley Phi 2B 
146 Rickie Weeks Mil 2B 
147 Carlos Gomez Mil OF 
148 Nick Swisher NYY OF 
149 Josh Rutledge Col SS 
150 Jon Lester Bos SP 
151 Will Middlebrooks Bos 3B 
152 Tommy Hanson Atl SP 
153 Drew Storen Was RP 
154 Anthony Rizzo ChC 1B 
155 Greg Holland KC RP 
156 Tim Hudson Atl SP 
157 Jeff Samardzija ChC SP 
158 Ryan Howard Phi 1B 
159 Shaun Marcum Mil SP 
160 C.J. Wilson LAA SP 
161 Coco Crisp Oak OF 
162 Adam Dunn CWS 1B 
163 Erick Aybar LAA SS 
164 Grant Balfour Oak RP 
165 J.J. Putz Ari RP 
166 Angel Pagan SF OF 
167 Michael Cuddyer Col 1B/OF 
168 A.J. Burnett Pit SP 
169 David Freese StL 3B 
170 Danny Espinosa Was 2B/SS 
171 Kyle Lohse StL SP 
172 Nick Markakis Bal OF 
173 Wade Miley Ari SP 
174 Alex Rodriguez NYY 3B 
175 Ben Revere Min OF 
176 Jon Niese NYM SP 
177 Jaime Garcia StL SP 
178 Chris Davis Bal 1B/OF 
179 Ryan Dempster Tex SP 
180 Rafael Betancourt Col RP 
181 Edwin Jackson Was SP 
182 Mike Moustakas KC 3B 
183 Joel Hanrahan Pit RP 
184 Manny Machado Bal 3B 
185 Josh Beckett LAD SP 
186 Howie Kendrick LAA 2B 
187 Jarrod Parker Oak SP 
188 Alex Cobb TB SP 
189 Matt Harrison Tex SP 
190 Carlos Ruiz Phi C 
191 Casey Janssen Tor RP 
192 Ryan Vogelsong SF SP 
193 Jason Kubel Ari OF 
194 Jim Johnson Bal RP 
195 Josh Reddick Oak OF 
196 Anibal Sanchez Det SP 
197 Brett Gardner NYY OF 
198 Huston Street SD RP 
199 Addison Reed CWS RP 
200 J.J. Hardy Bal SS 
201 Brandon Morrow Tor SP 
202 Torii Hunter LAA OF 
203 Chris Capuano LAD SP 
204 Rafael Soriano NYY RP 
205 Lorenzo Cain KC OF 
206 Wilton Lopez Hou RP 
207 Jason Hammel Bal SP 
208 Justin Ruggiano Mia OF 
209 A.J. Griffin Oak SP 
210 Andrew Bailey Bos RP 
211 John Axford Mil RP 
212 Kendrys Morales LAA 1B 
213 Everth Cabrera SD SS 
214 Ted Lilly LAD SP 
215 Marco Scutaro SF 2B/SS 
216 Yasmani Grandal SD C 
217 Chris Perez Cle RP 
218 Drew Stubbs Cin OF 
219 Todd Frazier Cin 1B/3B 
220 Alfonso Soriano ChC OF 
221 Homer Bailey Cin SP 
222 Brandon Moss Oak 1B/OF 
223 Steve Cishek Mia RP 
224 Jesus Montero Sea C 
225 Daniel Murphy NYM 2B 
226 Jeremy Hellickson TB SP 
227 Carlos Marmol ChC RP 
228 Norichika Aoki Mil OF 
229 Jon Jay StL OF 
230 David Murphy Tex OF 
231 Justin Morneau Min 1B 
232 Phil Hughes NYY SP 
233 Dustin Ackley Sea 2B 
234 Dexter Fowler Col OF 
235 Emilio Bonifacio Mia OF 
236 Mariano Rivera NYY RP 
237 Wandy Rodriguez Pit SP 
238 Trevor Bauer Ari SP 
239 Jarrod Saltalamacchia Bos C 
240 Chad Billingsley LAD SP 
241 Tyler Colvin Col 1B/OF 
242 Pedro Alvarez Pit 3B 
243 Mark Buehrle Mia SP 
244 Jean Segura Min SS 
245 Trevor Cahill Ari SP 
246 Frank Francisco NYM RP 
247 Drew Smyly Det SP 
248 Cameron Maybin SD OF 
249 Kevin Youkilis CWS 3B 
250 Kelly Johnson Tor 2B 
251 Andrew Cashner SD SP 
252 Shelby Miller StL SP 
253 Rajai Davis Tor OF 
254 Hisashi Iwakuma Sea SP 
255 Chris Young Oak OF 
256 Colby Rasmus Tor OF 
257 Mark Reynolds Bal 1B 
258 Zack Cozart Cin SS 
259 Starling Marte Pit OF 
260 Logan Morrison Mia OF 
261 Jonathan Lucroy Mil C 
262 Tyler Clippard Was RP 
263 Brandon Belt SF 1B 
264 Michael Fiers Mil SP 
265 Matt Joyce TB OF 
266 Joaquin Benoit Det RP 
267 Dayan Viciedo CWS OF 
268 Bobby Parnell NYM RP 
269 Mike Minor Atl SP 
270 Omar Infante Det 2B 
271 Jose Valverde Det RP 
272 Tommy Milone Oak SP 
273 Brian Wilson SF RP 
274 Garrett Jones Pit 1B/OF 
275 Carlos Quentin SD OF 
276 Ryan Ludwick StL OF 
277 Vinnie Pestano Cle RP 
278 J.P. Arencibia Tor C 
279 Cody Ross Bos OF 
280 Jhonny Peralta Det SS 
281 Kyle Seager Sea 3B 
282 David Robertson NYY RP 
283 James McDonald Pit SP 
284 Russell Martin NYY C 
285 A.J. Pierzynski CWS C 
286 David Hernandez Ari RP 
287 Jed Lowrie Hou SS 
288 Andrelton Simmons Atl SS 
289 Johan Santana NYM SP 
290 Wilson Ramos Was C 
291 Michael Brantley Cle OF 
292 Junuchi Tazawa Bos RP 
293 Jason Vargas Sea SP 
294 Ryan Doumit Min C/OF