The Revolution In Real Estate: How long will you be underwater?

How long will you be underwater?
Timeline to reach desired equity position depends on 3 factors
By Jack Guttentag
Inman News?

About 16 million homeowners owe more on their mortgage than their homes are worth, which means they are "underwater." So long as that condition continues, they have no equity that can be used to help finance the purchase of another house.

On the contrary, they can't sell the house without digging into their pockets to pay the difference between what they owe and what they can realize from the sale net of expenses.

But time heals most wounds, and negative equity is no exception. The principal component of the monthly mortgage payment reduces the loan balance by the same amount.

Refinancing into a mortgage carrying a lower interest rate reduces the interest portion of the monthly mortgage payment, thereby increasing the principal component and the rate at which the balance is paid down.

Although underwater borrowers generally can't qualify for a refinance, those fortunate enough to have their mortgages held by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac comprise an important exception. The government's Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) permits negative equity, though borrowers must be in good standing to be eligible.

The other component of negative equity, depressed home prices, also appears to have turned the corner. Prices have begun to rise again in some areas in which the houses listed on the market have fallen short of demand from purchasers. It is plausible that within the year home prices in most areas will again be on the rise.

It is now time for underwater borrowers to start planning to get their heads above water. To help in that process, Chuck Freedenberg and I have designed two calculators designated 2d and 2e on my website. The first shows the borrower's equity in the property month by month for any combination of the various factors that affect changes in equity. These include the interest rate, property appreciation rate, and extra payments. Some examples are shown in the table.

Changes in Negative Equity with Initial Loan Balance of $200,000, Property Value of $150,000 and Monthly Payment of $1,300

Factors Affecting Change in Equity			Month When Equity Reaches:
Interest Rate	Appreciation Rate	Extra Payments	0	10%	20%
6%	0	0	122	148	170
6%	1%	0	98	123	147
6%	1%	$50	89	112	134
6%	2%	$50	74	95	116
6%	2%	$100	68	88	108
4.5%	0	0	79	99	117
4.5%	1%	0	67	86	104
4.5%	1%	$50	63	80	97
4.5%	2%	$50	55	71	87
4.5%	2%	$100	52	67	83

The table shows, for different combinations of interest rate, appreciation rate and extra payments, when the borrower will no longer be underwater, which is the month when equity hits zero. The table also shows how long it will take before equity hits 10 percent, at which point the borrower who is otherwise qualified will be able to refinance, and 20 percent where a refinance won't require mortgage insurance. Borrowers may want to raise their targets to cover the expenses of whatever action they plan. If the goal is to sell the house, for example, they will need positive equity of 5-7 percent to cover sales costs. This is easy to find with the calculator. The second calculator is designed for underwater borrowers who want to know how much extra they have to pay each month to reach a target equity level within a specified period. For example, the borrower paying 4.5 percent in the example above wants 10 percent equity in five years and believes his house will appreciate at a rate of 1 percent a year. The calculator tells him he must pay an additional $315.50 every month for 60 months to reach his objective. If his house does not appreciate, he has to pay $418.05. While the calculator tells you what you must do to reach your objective, it doesn't tell you how to develop the commitment and determination to see it through. I am working on that. The writer is professor of finance emeritus at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Comments and questions can be left at www.mtgprofessor.com. If you'd like more information on the market, like to list your property, or want information on any property from any broker, you may call or email at anytime.

Thank you,

Suzanne O'Brien
Your Expert Advisor
P: 313-516-6644
suzanneo@realestateone.com
http://www.movingmetrodetroit.com

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